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# ‘Project Hail Mary’s’ Second Act: Why Amazon May Win Even Bigger at Home
- URL: https://tvrev2beta2.ghost.io/project-hail-marys-second-act-why-amazon-may-win-even-bigger-at-home/
- Published: 2026-03-23T19:25:50.000Z
- Updated: 2026-03-23T19:25:50.000Z
- Author: Brandon Katz
- Tags: Amazon, Amazon Prime Video, box office, #sqs, #Import 2026-09-03 21:54, Data

The roughly $200 million-budgeted *Project Hail Mary* just opened to a rousing $80.6 million domestically and more than $140 million worldwide. Ryan Gosling’s sci-fi crowd-pleaser is now well on its way to a $500 million-plus box office run. Amazon MGM can officially uncork the champagne and bust out the pigs in a blanket (I have no idea what pairs well with champagne).

Yet *Project Hail Mary* is not just a box office hit. It’s poised to drive value across its entire life cycle. *Red One*, Amazon’s previous biggest movie ever, finished its theatrical run with $186 million before becoming 2024’s 10th most-watched movie on streaming in just one month, per Nielsen. *Project Hail Mary* is similarly positioned.

In the week of its release, 46% of viewers preferred to see the film in theaters, while 34% said they would wait to watch it at home, according to Greenlight Analytics. Theatrical held a healthy lead, while the home window promised potential when the film was made available at home. That’s the dream.

Of those home viewers, 12% were willing to pay (either via a VOD transaction or a new streaming subscription), while 22% preferred to wait until it arrived on a streamer they already subscribed to. The deferred demand is further highlighted by home viewers producing the biggest drop-off of any demo between Interest and Willingness to Pay, per Greenlight. The desire is there; it’s just a matter of convenient windowing. Different consumers are activated at different times based on their viewing preferences.

Amazon Prime is uniquely built for this audience, as its users are 36% more likely than the average U.S. adult to be streaming-exclusive viewers. While some may view this as theatrical leakage, Amazon should see it as a built-in conversion funnel. Hungry for engagement, the popular blockbuster is tracking like a streaming entree. 

Prime, which is roughly 50/50 male and female among U.S. adults, will also deliver female audiences to *Project Hail Mary*. Theatrical sci-fi skews heavily male, and there was a gap among women between Interest (43%) and Theatrical Intent (39%) for the film. The VOD and streaming windows become a second chance to monetize those viewers, as well as others who were interested but didn’t make it to theaters. That’s how you expand beyond the core sci-fi demo.

The film notched a rock-solid 58% Willingness to Pay score upon release. (Granted, *Red One* finished at 65%). The on-demand window represents immediate additional revenue and potential subscriber growth, while the Prime Video window supports retention and engagement via new audiences. It’s a strong example of the long tail of value that hit theatrical films can create. For Amazon, it’s all upside from here.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/18/4b/184bce7f-90ef-4333-95df-ad6ebcbdad98/content/images/images-squarespace-cdn-com/content/v1/60df3ea739725c04ca27d651/9016157b-573c-4f1b-abb7-caed3004dd5a/theatrical-vs-home-funnel-project-hail-mary-week-of-release-format-original.webp)